New York Mets 2010 Season Preview

PJ's 2010 NY Mets Preview

A Dream Deferred

At least now the public knows what a thyroid is. Fans of the New York Metropolitans are diverse. Whether they suffer from eternal delusions of grandeur, go crazy over David Wright's waxed eyebrows or actually have more fun watching the Yankees lose, Mets fans share the ornery personalities of all New York sports fans. And with an organization that appears as dysfunctional as the U.S. government, the frustration of dreams deferred for another year is a likely possibility. The New York Mets haven't been bitten by the injury bug, they've been implanted with an embryonic infestation of injury bugs. When you are sick, you have to constantly keep in touch with your employer, if only to keep them informed or even to keep your job. The fact that one of your star players finds it difficult to maintain a clear line of communication regarding a knee injury is not a good sign. If players like Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes lose more quality playing time due to communication issues, then it won't matter if the Mets stopped taking medical advice from Mickey Mantle's bartender. On the bright side for the Mets, their depleted farm system does seem to have some light at the end of the tunnel with fireballer Jenrry Mejia, still only 21 year old Fernando Martinez, shortstop Ruben Tejada, catching work in progress Josh Thole, possible power source Ike Davis, lefthander Jon Niese, and teenage hitter Wilmer Flores. Its just too bad that tunnel is longer than the Midtown, Lincoln, Brooklyn Battery and Holland tunnels put together. I guess there's a reason why the Mets fans always quote 'Ya Gotta Believe!"

Position By Position Breakdown:

[range from negative to positive: (--), (-), (SOLID), (+), (++)]

Catcher:

Rod Barajas, Henry Blanco, Omir Santos, Chris Coste

The Mets have indeed been shopping on Overstock.com. With veteran backstops Barajas and Blanco, the Mets have plenty of experience to help their enigmatic starting pitchers and some occasional power on offense. Santos and/or Coste will likely be shipped to Triple A to help future backstop Josh Thole develop. Thole may turn out to be a plus on offense with a short, contact friendly swing, but his defensive skills are not big league ready yet. The Mets have afforded themselves some flexibility but at the cost of overall offense, and with the injuries to Beltran and Reyes, and the unknown quantity at first base, the lack of an in-prime offensive catcher may hurt.

Overall: SOLID

First Base:

Daniel Murphy, Fernando Tatis, Mike Jacobs, Ike Davis

Ike Davis put his name in the hat with a powerful preseason but still has a vulnerable swing. Mike Jacobs is likely to be left out due to Fernando Tatis's ability to play different positions. Sadly, this fan's opinion is that Daniel Murphy is not a full time major league baseball player. If you were to look at Murphy's film from last year, and looked only at fastballs 90-92 mph, waist-high from inside to outside, it would be clear that Murphy does not hit a waist-high fastball. You cannot play in the major leagues while not consistently driving that pitch, and Murphy misses it regularly. By all means, I hope he proves me wrong and I will eat my words, but I know for a fact that if I throw a couple of waist-high fastballs to Mike Jacobs, I won't have a pitching gig for long. Defensively, Tatis and Davis are probably the best bets, and that's not saying much.

Overall: (--)

Second Base:

Luis Castillo, Alex Cora, Anderson Hernandez

If Luis Castillo remains healthy and shows the same season he had last year and continued into this spring, the Mets are set for the immediate future. I would have liked to see Orlando Hudson in a Met uniform but will settle for Castillo again. You can tolerate his decreased range (especially compared to Hudson) if he bats .300 and gets on base. Anderson Hernandez will be backing him up from Triple A and will continue to develop offensive skills that may get him to bat somewhere above .200 someday.

Overall: SOLID

Shortstop:

Alex Cora, Jose Reyes (on DL), Ruben Tejada

Reyes will be an unknown as doctors evaluate his health and for awhile after he is cleared to return. For the near future (overused term with the Mets), we will settle for Alex Cora who is a solid defensive player and will give you good at-bats although never will be completely rewarding offensively. Tejada is a player to watch for sure. Good hands in the field and at the plate. A good level swing that will result in many line drives if he can make contact at the big league level. Formerly a huge plus for the Mets, this position will be a big question mark until Reyes can bat .290 again or Tejada can open eyes. Until then, the Riddler himself couldn't come up with a more cruel joke for Mets fans.

Overall: (-)

Third Base:

David Wright, Fernando Tatis

A rebound season from Wright would mean the world to fans and the franchise. This spring he seems to have worked out some of the excess movement from his swing last year (his rocking stride consistently caused his front side to collapse and pull out). If he drives the ball to the opposite field consistently, he's dangerous regardless of power numbers. Asserting himself with runners in scoring position is still a problem but with the addition of Jason Bay, that may take care of itself with more fastballs thrown Wright's way. His defense is solid and he'll make a highlight reel or two.

Overall: (++)

Right Field:

Jeff Francoeur, Gary Matthews

A cold spring for Francoeur has awakened my fears of the pull-happy, long swing that drove him out of Atlanta. If he can find the shortened, all-fields swing from the second half of last year, he may reproduce the .300 batting average with the Mets and a solid 20-plus home-runs. If not, then the Mets will have to rely on a thin outfield bench (with Beltran out). Gary Matthews has some athleticism on the bases and will cover ground but his desire to work everyday is as unreliable as the Mets medical staff. If Matthews shows up, he can be an occasional plus. Hopefully, Francoeur won't let that be too much of a consideration.

Overall: SOLID

Center Field:

Angel Pagan, Carlos Beltran (on DL), Gary Matthews, Fernando Martinez

Say what you want about Angel Pagan, he gets on base, scores runs, hits with men in scoring position, and covers an expansive CitiField with ease. As a backup, his throwing errors and frenetic baserunning can be forgiven. As a starter, they aren't ignored. If these mistakes continue to prove regular, then the Mets...don't really have a choice. Matthews will get some time in center and if things really go wrong, youngster Martinez will again be challenged at the big league level. If he is healthy and produces some hits, then the Mets will have a deep outfield bench.

Overall: SOLID

Left Field:

Jason Bay, Fernando Tatis, Fernando Martinez

I have never been a fan of Jason Bay. He is a fly ball hitter in a pitcher's ballpark. Not a plus defensively (although better than Matt Holliday in my opinion), Bay will have to reproduce his 2009 season if the Mets are to have a winning season. Most importantly, he has to back up David Wright. A quick start to the season is really all that is necessary for Wright's and the Mets' success. If he can hit 30-plus homers, he will greatly improve the team. If his fly balls come up short, it will be a long season.

Overall: SOLID

Starting Pitching:

Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, John Maine, Jonathan Niese

Johan is healthy and feeling good and that's a reason to smile if you're a Mets fan. Smiling is what Pelfrey, Perez and Maine rarely do. If ever a team had as mentally weak starting pitching staff, I would be surprised. These three musketeers are their own worst enemies. Pelfrey pursued therapy for his balking problems, Perez too often forgets if he is a righty or lefty, and Maine couldn't be more self-loathing if he was a Met fan looking at his bank account after buying 2009 season tickets. What separates all mediocre pitchers from the good ones is personality. From the stoicism of Greg Maddux and the Tom Glavine that the Mets never saw, to the sheer determination of names like Andy Petitte, Curt Shilling and Randy Johnson, and even the pure joy we witness on the faces of Pedro Martinez and Mariano Rivera; all good major league pitchers have an unflappable personality and mound presence. The middle of the Mets starting pitching has a presence and personality as indecipherable as an ink blot test. At the back end, Jonathan Niese should get the nod as the fifth starter. If he can locate his fastball and cutter, he would be a better 3rd or 4th than the other three.

Overall: SOLID

Relief Corps:

Francisco Rodriguez, Ryota Igarashi, Bobby Parnell, Pedro Feliciano, Fernando Nieve, Nelson Figueroa, Tobi Stoner

If the Mets are winning, K-Rod will have saves, if they aren't he'll blow a few it seems. Sadly and necessarily, the Mets have long relief options galore in Figueroa and Nieve. Both are options for the fifth starting position as well. Feliciano is as good as any left handed specialist in the major leagues, period. Hisanori Takahashi, a lefty from Japan, has impressed this spring and the Mets should keep him handy, but they aren't the best talent evaluators. As for the later innings, someone will have to step up. Parnell has to shake the same mental weakness that the Mets' starters suffer from. Without a rediscovery of his 98 mph fastball, he won't be a factor in any Mets success. Igarashi is a smart pitcher which puts him ahead of most Mets staffers, but without a standout pitch he may not have a reliable makeup for the 7th or 8th inning. But as far as relief corps go in the major leagues, the Mets are run of the mill, completely unknown.

Overall: (-)

CONCLUSIONS:

The 2010 New York Mets have no chance of beating the Phillies. If the Marlins starting pitching matures this year, and the Braves play solid ball, the Mets will be left out of contention easily. In fact, without a healthy Jose Reyes playing at the level that he is capable of, and Beltran rehabbing with his agent Scott Boras in his ear, the Mets may lose more games than last years cellar dwellers the Washington Nationals, who this year are greatly improved. As you can tell, I don't rely on the 'Ya Gotta Believe' philosophy of the New York Mets. So much is unknown about the Mets near future, that I can only say that the young players like Josh Thole, Jenrry Mejia, Fernando Martinez and Ruben Tejada may add some excitement to Mets loyals. But with organizational troubles ranging from errors of talent evaluation to an unsettling mix of accountability at upper levels of management, the Mets will continue to have trouble in the near future. Further off, the return of Reyes and hopeful maturation of young talent do make me dream a bit of a good future for the Mets, if they don't make a Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano type deal again, or if the only thing their talent development develops is injuries like those to Martinez, Reyes, and further back Paul Wilson, Jason Isringhausen and Bill Pulsipher. Regarding the 2010 season, it will be another raisin in the sun...if the sun ever comes out this year.